The Upper Confidence Limit: Multilevel Statistical Models Many kinds of data, including observational data collected in the human and biological sciences, have a hierarchical or clustered structure. For example, animal and human studies of inheritance deal with a natural hierarchy where offspring are grouped within families.
Benjamin Franklin — first mapped the course of the Gulf Stream for use in sending mail from the United Eof essays to Europe. Francis Galton — invented the term anticyclone.
The first distinct climate Eof essays were the works of Hippocrates, who wrote Airs, Water and Places in B.
Different approach[ edit ] Map of the average temperature over 30 years.
Data sets formed from the long-term average of historical weather parameters are sometimes called a "climatology". Eof essays is approached in various ways such as Paleoclimatologywhich seeks to reconstruct past climates by examining records such as ice cores and tree rings dendroclimatology.
Paleotempestology uses these same records to help determine hurricane frequency over millennia. The study of contemporary climates incorporates meteorological data accumulated over many years, such as records of rainfall, temperature and atmospheric composition.
Knowledge of the atmosphere and its dynamics is also embodied in modelseither statistical or mathematicalwhich help by integrating different observations and testing how they fit together. Modeling is used for understanding past, present and potential future climates.
Historical climatology is the study of climate as related to human history and thus focuses only on the last few thousand years.
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Climate research is made difficult by the large scale, long time periods, and complex processes which govern climate.
Climate is governed by physical laws which can be expressed as differential equations. These equations are coupled and nonlinear, so that approximate solutions are obtained by using numerical methods to create global climate models. Climate is sometimes modeled as a stochastic process but this is generally accepted as an approximation to processes that are otherwise too complicated to analyze.
Much in the way the Dow Jones Industrial Averagewhich is based on the stock prices of 30 companies, is used to represent the fluctuations in the stock market as a whole, climate indices are used to represent the essential elements of climate.
Climate indices are generally devised with the twin objectives of simplicity and completeness, and each index typically represents the status and timing of the climate factor it represents. By their very nature, indices are simple, and combine many details into a generalized, overall description of the atmosphere or ocean which can be used to characterize the factors which impact the global climate system.
The atmospheric signature, the Southern Oscillation SO reflects the monthly or seasonal fluctuations in the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin.
ENSO is the most prominent known source of inter-annual variability in weather and climate around the world. Many of the countries most affected by ENSO events are developing countries within tropical sections of continents with economies that are largely dependent upon their agricultural and fishery sectors as a major source of food supply, employment, and foreign exchange.
Low-frequency variability has been evidenced: This could explain the so-called protracted ENSO of the early s. The Madden—Julian oscillation MJO is an equatorial traveling pattern of anomalous rainfall that is planetary in scale.
It is characterized by an eastward progression of large regions of both enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall, observed mainly over the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The anomalous rainfall is usually first evident over the western Indian Ocean, and remains evident as it propagates over the very warm ocean waters of the western and central tropical Pacific.
This pattern of tropical rainfall then generally becomes very nondescript as it moves over the cooler ocean waters of the eastern Pacific but reappears over the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans.
The wet phase of enhanced convection and precipitation is followed by a dry phase where convection is suppressed. Each cycle lasts approximately 30—60 days. The MJO is also known as the to day oscillation, to day wave, or the intraseasonal oscillation.
The SLP anomalies at each station were normalized by division of each seasonal mean pressure by the long-term mean — standard deviation.
Normalization is done to avoid the series of being dominated by the greater variability of the northern of the two stations. Positive values of the index indicate stronger-than-average westerlies over the middle latitudes. Although there are some subtle differences from the regional pattern over the Atlantic and Arctic, the main difference is larger amplitude anomalies over the North Pacific of the same sign as those over the Atlantic.
This feature gives the NAM a more annular or zonally symmetric structure. During a "warm", or "positive", phase, the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms; during a "cool" or "negative" phase, the opposite pattern occurs. The mechanism by which the pattern lasts over several years has not been identified; one suggestion is that a thin layer of warm water during summer may shield deeper cold waters.
A PDO signal has been reconstructed to through tree-ring chronologies in the Baja California area.
In the tropical Pacific, maximum SST anomalies are found away from the equator.David Moews's home page. Perfect, amicable and sociable numbers. The firing squad synchronization problem. December BIGNUM BAKEOFF contest: rules, rules clarification (I), rules clarification (II), results; a post-mortem entry.
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. Climatology (from Greek κλίμα, klima, "place, zone"; and -λογία, -logia) or climate science is the scientific study of climate, scientifically defined as weather conditions averaged over a period of time.
This modern field of study is regarded as a branch of the atmospheric sciences and a subfield of physical geography, which is one of the Earth .
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